I recently joined Tim Peacock and Anton Chuvakin on the Google Cloud Security Podcast to talk about SIEM, AI SOC, pricing, federated architecture, detection engineering, and why network telemetry is quietly becoming important again.
The short version is simple: SIEM is not dead. Calling it obsolete makes for good marketing, but it is not a serious thesis.
The new wave of AI SOC, SIEM, and pipeline vendors is not proving SIEM is dead. It is proving SIEM vendors left too many gaps open for too long.
The recent wave of AI SOC startups, pipeline vendors, and new SIEM entrants is a response to real pain in the market. They are not replacing SIEM. They are capitalizing on the gaps incumbent vendors left open.
TL;DR
SIEM is not dead. Vendors just left too many gaps open.
AI SOC often exposes those gaps more than it replaces SIEM.
Alert reduction alone will hide false negatives.
The real fixes are better routing, detection, context, and workflows.
Network telemetry still matters more than the market narrative suggests.
The market is not replacing SIEM. It is rebuilding missing pieces.
They say they will reduce alert volume, improve detections, make investigations faster, lower storage costs, and simplify operations. None of that is new. Those were always core parts of the SIEM vision.
That is why so many of these new entrants exist. They found real gaps:
Pricing that became too hard to justify
Architectures that did not scale as well as they should
Detection stacks that still require too much manual work
Default content that creates too much noise
Workflows that remain painful for analysts and service providers
This is why I do not buy the “SIEM is over” narrative. If incumbents fix these gaps, many point solutions lose their edge quickly.
AI SOC is mostly a patch on downstream pain
The strongest short-term value in the AI SOC market is obvious: too many teams, especially MSSPs and down-market security providers, are drowning in alerts. A lot of environments are running with default content, light tuning, and limited budget for customization. Large enterprises can afford deep implementation and constant refinement. Many managed providers cannot.
If a product makes the SOC quieter without improving coverage, you may not have solved the problem. You may have just converted visible false positives into invisible false negatives.
If a startup is solving alert overload by learning that the same service-account misconfiguration fires every morning at 8am and can safely be deprioritized, that is useful. But it is still a patch on bad upstream logic, and it often hides a second problem: false negatives. Once teams see fewer alerts, they assume the system got smarter. Sometimes it did. Sometimes it just got quieter. The real fix belongs closer to the detection layer, the correlation logic, the content, and the configuration model.
That is why I think a lot of the current AI SOC wave is temporary in its present form. Not temporary because the need goes away, but temporary because the best parts of that value will be absorbed elsewhere. Some of it should move back into the SIEM. Some of it should live in the detection engine. Some of it belongs in better onboarding, better rule tuning, better data handling, and better defaults.
There is still room for new winners here. But “we reduce alerts by 80%” is not a durable thesis by itself.
The architecture debate is not centralized versus federated. It is about access patterns.
In theory, pushing compute to where the data sits is attractive. In practice, the answer depends on access patterns.
Some data absolutely does not need to be centralized all the time. Endpoint system calls are a good example. You do not want to shovel every low-level signal into a central platform by default if you can process, summarize, or prioritize it earlier.
But the moment an analyst, agent, or investigation workflow needs context, enrichment, and cross-correlation, some centralization comes back. You need to connect what happened on the endpoint with what happened on the firewall, identity plane, SaaS layer, email stack, and elsewhere.
So the future is probably not pure centralized or pure federated. It is hybrid:
Keep some data local or near-source
Route and centralize the parts that matter
Pull deeper context only when needed
Optimize around how investigations actually happen
This is why I keep coming back to smart data routing. Most organizations do not need to send every piece of data to the same place forever. But they do need an architecture that knows when to summarize, when to correlate, and when to pull more detail back in.
Data pipelines became the Trojan horse
Vendors in this space positioned themselves as optimization and routing tools. Send your data here, normalize it, trim low-value volume, route it to the right storage tier, keep costs down, and retain optionality. In many environments, that solved a real problem.
Once a pipeline vendor owns your ingestion layer and your integrations, it becomes an abstraction layer between you and the SIEM. That makes the SIEM less sticky. At first the pipeline vendor only routes data. Then it adds search. Then it runs lightweight detections. Then it supports simple rules. At some point it starts to look suspiciously like a simple SIEM.
If someone else owns the data path, they eventually get a shot at owning more of the security brain.
Pricing remains one of the category’s hardest unsolved problems
Almost everyone agrees that SIEM pricing has been a problem. Much fewer people agree on what the right answer is.
The vendor reality is straightforward: data volume drives cost. The customer reality is equally straightforward: they hate unpredictability.
That tension gets even worse in the service-provider world. MSSPs and MSPs often sell packaged services, per-user offerings, or per-device contracts. Their customers do not want a fluctuating bill because log volume spiked this month. So the thing that is economically clean for the vendor can be operationally ugly for the buyer.
There is no perfect answer here. But the next generation of pricing models will need to do a better job of separating:
Predictable commercial packaging
Actual backend resource consumption
Incentives for better data quality rather than more raw ingestion
The market has already started experimenting. Bring-your-own-storage, bring-your-own-compute, lower-cost data lakes, and more selective routing are all responses to the same pressure. Pricing is one of the core forces reshaping the market.
Detection engineering still needs much more help from the platform
Rules still need adaptation by environment. Thresholds differ. Data quality differs. Sources differ. Customer expectations differ. Generic content does not simply drop in and work.
What is surprising is how much low-hanging product work still remains. A modern platform should do far more to help users answer basic but critical questions:
Is the data required for this detection even present?
Is it configured in a way that can ever make this rule fire?
Are there obvious gaps or mistakes in the source configuration?
Which detections are silent because they are poorly mapped to the environment?
The more interesting direction, in my view, is not just better standalone rules. It is better context. Call it a context graph, an entity graph, a risk graph, or something else. The naming matters less than the function.
You want a living model of users, devices, applications, identities, behaviors, and risk signals. If the system knows that a user is coming from their normal IP, on a familiar device, through a known browser pattern, after strong authentication, that should shape how other events are interpreted. If all of those signals change at once, that should shape the response differently.
That kind of context is where detection quality meaningfully improves.
Network telemetry is not “back,” but it is still critical
I do not think this automatically means a major standalone NDR renaissance. But I do think many teams went too far in treating network telemetry as secondary once endpoint and application visibility improved.
An endpoint is still a single point of failure. If you lose visibility there, the network can still tell you a lot. It can help validate what else is happening. It can show you unmanaged systems, OT environments, choke points, and traffic patterns you will not otherwise see clearly.
This matters even more now because some organizations are reassessing where systems and data live. In parts of Europe, I am seeing more discussion around data sovereignty, political trust, private clouds, and selective moves back toward local or regional infrastructure. As architectures spread and governance constraints tighten, network visibility becomes more important again.
So no, I would not frame this as “throw away EDR and buy NDR.” That is the wrong lesson.
What happens next
The real question is not whether SIEM survives. It is which vendors understand they are now selling data architecture, detection quality, analyst workflow, and decision support.
The SIEM market is heading into another rebuild cycle. Some AI SOC and pipeline startups will disappear, some will be absorbed, and some incumbents will finally fix what they should have fixed years ago. But the core need is not going away: security teams still need a place where signals come together, context gets built, detections improve, and response decisions get made.
That is still SIEM territory, even if the implementation looks very different from what we used to buy.
? If you are building, buying, operating, or replacing SIEM, I’d love your input. I’m collecting market data at raffy.ch/SIEM. Anyone can contribute, and everyone is welcome.
Update: Instead of an Excel spreadsheet, here is an online app that you can use. I’d love for you to submit your own ratings so we can crowd-source some of these answers!
“Ok, but how do I evaluate vendors consistently without falling back into feature checklists and marketing claims?”
So I turned the framework into a practical scoring workbook (and now a small Web application) you can use to rate a platform across the dimensions I described in the post. The workbook allows you to rate each category from 1 to 5 and I spent some time defining what a 1 versus a 5 means in each of the categories. I give you an example for the “Data Pipeline Optimization” category. Here are the 5 maturity steps:
1 | Static ingestion pipelines that forward all data to a central store.
2 | Basic filtering or routing based on source or log type.
3 | Conditional enrichment and routing based on use case or predefined alerts/rules.
4 | Dynamic pipelines that adapt sampling, enrichment, and routing based on downstream value.
5 | Continuously optimized pipelines driven by feedback loops from detections, cost, and analyst outcomes.
I hope the breakdown into these 5 values helps going through a more ‘objective’ assessment of these platforms and also shows what excellent looks like in each of these categories.
What this is
The Security Analytics Platforms – Maturity Framework is an architecture-first tool to evaluate security platforms across architectural, detection, and operational dimensions. It is designed to help you compare systems based on their advanced capabilities that are desperately needed to deliver a SIEM experience that is adequate for 2026..
What this is not
This is not a vendor ranking, a feature checklist, or a replacement for hands-on testing. It’s also NOT an RFP template. As I indicated in my previous blog where I outlined all the different categories, the table stakes are not mentioned or evaluated.
How to use it in 10 minutes
Add one vendor per row in the rating sheet.
Score each topic based on current behavior, not roadmap promises.
Review category roll-ups and the heatmap to spot structural gaps.
A key insight: large gaps between category scores often matter more than the overall score.
Security analytics is in the middle of a reset. Incumbent SIEMs are being re-architected, new SIEM startups are emerging, and AI SOC vendors are rewriting parts of the operating model. End users and investors need a way to evaluate these platforms objectively, beyond feature checklists and marketing claims. This workbook is my attempt to make that evaluation repeatable, comparable, and anchored in the areas that I see missing or deficient in the incumbent SIEM space.
If you use it, I’d love your feedback
If you score a platform with it, use the Web app and submit your rating. You need to log in via Github or Google so I don’t get flooded with fake entries. I’d love to crowdsource an assessment of all the SIEM and AI SOC vendors out there. Can we do it?
I have been talking to a few AI SOC and new SIEM market entrants over the past few weeks. I have voiced some opinions in previous posts but have now started to capture a list of features that I believe represent the openings existing SIEM players have created in the market for these new vendors to emerge.
Before I outline what I think those features are, let me be clear: this is my list. I am aware that existing SIEM vendors will claim that they already do many of these things. All I will say is this: market churn and capital flow suggest that these capabilities are either not as mature or not as integrated as claimed.
And to the AI SOC companies and investors: be careful about the short-term problems your investments are solving. Yes, there is real traction with MSSPs that are overloaded with false positives. And yes, many will gladly pay to reduce alert workload by 80%. But in many cases, these problems are being addressed superficially. Make sure you audit the underlying approaches and verify that the foundational infrastructure is sound. Solving this problem on top of an existing detection infrastructure doesn’t solve the problem at the core, which is the detections themselves. We need to fix those with some of the suggestions below to not needing a top-layer, alert reducer.
Without further ado, here are the items I am tracking. I welcome other opinions and additions to the list (no guarantee I will include them). Over the coming weeks, I will also try to rate some of the players across these categories to enable comparison. I could use help with that. Ping me.
A. DATA & CONTROL PLANE ARCHITECTURE
Federation – The ability to query and reason over data where it lives, without forced centralization. (Another post following here at some point about the limitations of federation).
Data PipelineOptimization – Dynamic ingestion pipelines that enrich, route, sample, and filter data based on use case, risk, and downstream value. Not static “send everything to the lake.”
Data Awareness – Understanding what data exists, what is missing, and what has silently degraded. The system must continuously reason about its own observability.
Performance as a First-Class Constraint – Fast joins and low-latency queries across all relevant data. Real-time rule execution at scale. This is not about basic scalability, but about maintaining predictable performance as rule count and complexity increase, without simply throwing more compute at the problem.
Modern AI Integration – The ability to integrate with emerging architectural patterns and frameworks, including MCP servers, vector stores, and related systems.
B. DETECTION & LEARNING SYSTEMS
Hypothesis-Driven Hunting – Hunting should start with explicit hypotheses, not ad-hoc queries. These hypotheses should evolve, fork, and self-update based on outcomes. Agents swarms anyone?
Automated Detection Tuning (Closed Loop) – Detections must evaluate their precision and recall over time. False positives and false negatives are signals. Humans stay in the loop, but are not the tuning engine. This also helps separate the detection engineering from the tuning that should be done by analysts.
Environment-Adaptive Detections – Rules and models must adapt automatically to the specific environment, business processes, and user behavior and analyst feedback. Generic detections are table stakes.
Detection Lineage and Memory – The system must remember why a detection exists, how it has changed, and what outcomes it has historically produced.
C. ENTITY-CENTRIC RISK & CONTEXT
Asset Awareness – Effective protection and detection start with understanding what is being protected. Entity visibility is foundational: who owns this entity, what does it do, and which business processes does it support?
Real-Time Entity Risk Scoring – Each entity has a continuously updated risk score driven by behavior, exposure, and contextual signals.
Entity Risk Context – Risk is not a number. It is a set of properties that help explain the risk and provide context for decision making.
Business Context Integration – Entities must be tied to business processes, ownership, and criticality, and this context must inform alert generation and prioritization. Some people have started calling this the Context Graph.
D. OPERATIONAL REALITY (SOC, MSSP, ENFORCEMENT)
Simple QueryInterface: Support for both natural language and structured query languages (such as KQL). Analysts need both.
Alert Triage Automation – Using ‘advanced’ context to tune detections. Ideally we have business context available to continuously improve our detections.
Blindspot Detection – The system must actively identify where detections cannot exist due to missing or degraded logs or logging configurations. This includes making sure that log sources are actually staying up and keep reporting what they have to.
Real-Time Readiness for Enforcement – We need our systems to become preventative. Therefore, its risk model must operate in near real time. Attackers are acting too fast.
A Few Additional Comments for Context
This is not meant to be a SIEM RFP. I am intentionally not listing table-stakes capabilities such as basic scalability, data source support, or baseline detection depth.
This list is less about features than about where intelligence and control actually live in the system. I am also not being prescriptive on how these features are built. Many of them can benefit from AI / LLM / ML approaches and, in fact, should be using them.
Look at the list, then look at your AI SOC platform of choice. How much of the above does it truly cover?
If you are evaluating an AI SOC platform and most of its value proposition lives above alerts rather than below them, you should be skeptical.
Security has always moved in waves. Not because we suddenly get smarter, but because we learn from past mistakes, identify gaps, hit limits, need to protect new technologies, and then go and do our best to solve those new security challenges with the technologies at hand.
The era of AI (let’s be clear, we have had AI for a long time; what I mean specifically is the advent of Large Language Models) has shifted many industries, but specifically security in a particularly revealing way. AI did not just give us new tools to solve security problems. It invited innovators and entrepreneurs to revisit pretty much every security technology to see if LLMs could be useful to address some of the existing challenges. But that’s not where things stopped. More interestingly, some teams used this moment to question whether the underlying approaches themselves still made sense at all. Not just whether LLMs could help, but whether modern data architectures, different telemetry choices, and different enforcement models could fundamentally change outcomes.
That is what has triggered a real wave of new companies in cyber, including across markets that many considered mature, or even stagnant, like SIEM.
The Five Phases We Just Lived Through
Let’s take a non-scientific look at how major security approaches evolved over the past 25 years. This is not exhaustive, but it helps explain where we are today.
1. Network-Centric Prevention
Back, many moons ago, we started with firewalls, IDS, and later IPS. The model was simple. Look at packets. Stop bad things. It worked until attackers learned to look normal.
2. More Data, Centralized, Higher-Level Insights
When network telemetry created too many false positives, we added vulnerability data and authentication events and fed them into a SIEM to correlate. The results were “mixed”. Fortunately for the SIEM market, compliance and audit requirements emerged, mandating long-term log retention. This gave SIEM a durable justification, even when its security value was debated. SIEM became indispensable for visibility and forensics, but increasingly disconnected from real-time decision making.
3. Back to Prevention and Response
As SIEM alert volumes exploded and analysts could not keep up, the industry pivoted. EDR. NDR. SOAR. We all know how that played out. NDR never truly broke out. EDR became a major category. SOAR largely collapsed back into SIEM. And eventually, most large EDR vendors added a SIEM to their portfolio.
This was not convergence by design. It was convergence driven by operational gravity.
4. AI Triggers a Reality Check
LLMs made many believe they could simply layer AI on top of broken architectures. Some startups did exactly that. They will likely not be the long-term winners.
The more interesting group of companies used AI as a forcing function to re-examine first principles. What data actually matters? What can realistically be prevented at the edge? What must still be correlated centrally? What is structurally broken in SOC workflows? Where have we been compensating for bad architecture with human labor? Crucially, many of these answers have little to do with LLMs themselves, and much more to do with data fidelity, placement of control, and modern system design. This is where the real innovation is happening.
5. The Convergence
We are now in a phase where prevention is moving back to the edge, while analytics and orchestration remain central. Endpoints are smarter. Browsers are instrumented. Networks are being re-observed. Context is finally treated as a first-class input.
But there is still a SOC. There is still a central nervous system that correlates, reconstructs, explains, orchestrates, and proves what happened. Call it SIEM, security analytics, XDR, or AI SOC. The name is irrelevant. The function is not.
In parallel, we are realizing that we can push enforcement / prevention back to the edge. Wherever we have enough information, execute at the edge. Where we don’t, call out to your central nervous system. To your brain. The brain (your SIEM) that understands at any moment in time, what the risk and function is of every entity in your network. And use that information for decision making.
Why AI SOC Will Collapse Back Into SIEM
Many startups brand themselves as “AI SOC”. What do they actually do?
They primarily ingest alerts from EDR, NDR, SIEMs, and cloud platforms, then attempt to determine which ones matter. They add context, apply behavioral analysis, and suppress false positives.
In other words, they attempt to do what SIEM, UEBA, and SOAR were always supposed to do, just with better math and more compute. However, there is one problem. Many of the AI SOC contenders operate on alert streams. That means they start from already lossy, opinionated data. Real behavioral analysis does not on top of alert streams. It lives in raw telemetry. Email flows. Network sessions. Browser actions. Endpoint system behavior.
Once an AI SOC platform decides to ingest that raw data directly, it immediately recreates the ingestion, normalization, storage, and correlation problems that SIEM already exists to solve. At that point, the separation no longer makes sense. This is exactly why UEBA and SOAR collapsed back into SIEM. And it is why AI SOC will do the same.
There will be one place where data is reconciled, correlated, and turned into decisions. That place will increasingly run on federated, near-real-time architectures rather than twenty-year-old indexing engines. But their function remains the same. Call it whatever you want. It needs to be one system, not many and it doesn’t care what you call it.
The Shift Is Not Just Technical. It Is Organizational.
What is interesting to note about these new entrants in the SIEM or security analytics space is not just their security architecture. It is the company architecture. Modern security startups are being built on AI-native operating systems: Sales calls are captured and analyzed, not just by sales, but product teams mine them for competitive signals, marketing uses them to refine messaging, engineering uses them to prioritize roadmaps. This is not a tooling upgrade. It is a fundamentally different operating model.
Imagine a system where the vision, mission, strategy, and priorities are centrally maintained, updated and codified. Every function consumes that shared intelligence to drive decisions, messaging, and execution. This does not just improve alignment. It dramatically compresses learning cycles and execution speed. And that, more than any individual feature, may be the hardest thing for incumbents to replicate.
And why most of the arguments do not hold up under scrutiny
Over the past 18 to 24 months, venture capital has flowed into a fresh wave of SIEM challengers including Vega (which raised $65M in seed and Series A at a ~$400M valuation), Perpetual Systems, RunReveal, Iceguard, Sekoia, Cybersift, Ziggiz, and Abstract Security, all pitching themselves as the next generation of security analytics. What unites them is not just funding but a shared narrative that incumbent SIEMs are fundamentally broken: too costly, too siloed, too hard to scale, and too ineffective in the face of modern data volumes and AI-driven threats.
This post does not belabor each startup’s product. Instead it abstracts the shared assertions that justify recent funding and then stresses them to see which hold up under scrutiny. I am not defending incumbents. I am trying to separate real gaps from marketing (and funding) narratives.
The “SIEM is Broken” Narrative
A commonly cited industry report claimed that major SIEM tools cover only about 19% of MITRE ATT&CK techniques despite having access to data that could cover ~87%. That statistic is technically interesting but also deeply misleading: ATT&CK technique coverage is not an operational measure of detection quality or effectiveness, it primarily reflects rule inventory and tuning effort. Nevertheless, it has become a core justification for the “SIEM is obsolete” narrative. I wasn’t able to find the original report to validate what and how they tested, but I have seen SIEMs that cover much more and have big detection teams taking care of these issues.
The Five Core Claims Driving the Market Thesis
Across decks, interviews, and marketing copy, I picked five recurring themes that define what these companies think incumbents get wrong and what investors are underwriting as the path forward.
1. “Centralized SIEM architectures no longer scale”
The claim is that forcing security telemetry into a centralized repository is too expensive and too slow for modern enterprises generating terabytes of logs every day. The proposed fixes include federated queries, analyzing data where it lives, and decoupling detection from ingestion so you never have to move or duplicate all your data.
The challenge is that correlation, state, timelines, and real-time detection require locality. Distributed query engines excel at ad-hoc exploration but are not substitutes for continuous detection pipelines. Federated queries introduce latency, inconsistent performance, and complexity every time you write a detection. Normalization deferred to query time pushes complexity into every rule. You do not eliminate cost, you shift it to unpredictable query execution and compute costs that spike precisely when incidents occur. Centralizing data isn’t a flaw; it is a tradeoff that supports correlation engines, summary indexes, entity timelines, and stateful detections that distributed query models struggle to maintain in real time. In fact, if the SIEM was to store the data in the customer’s S3 bucket, you can keep cost somewhat under control.
2. “SIEM pricing is broken because it charges by data volume”
A frequent refrain is that incumbent SIEMs penalize good security hygiene by tying pricing to ingestion volume, which becomes untenable as data grows. The proposed response is pricing models untethered from volume, open storage, and customer-controlled compute.
The challenge is that cost doesn’t vanish because you hide volume. Compute, memory, enrichment, retention, and query costs all remain. If pricing is detached from ingestion, it typically reappears as unpredictable query charges, usage tiers, or gated features. Volume is not an arbitrary metric; it correlates with the cost a vendor (or customer) incurs. Treating cost as orthogonal to data volume does not make it disappear; it just blinds you to a key cost driver. I have dealt with all the pricing models: by user, by device, by volume, … in the end I needed to make my gross margins work, guess who pays for that?
3. “SIEM detections are weak because they rely on bad rules”
New entrants commonly assert that traditional SIEM rules are noisy, static, and unable to keep up with modern threat techniques. Solutions offered include natural-language detections, detections-as-code, continuous evaluation, and AI-generated rules.
The challenge is that many of these still sit atop the same primitives. For example, SIGMA is widely used as a community detection language, but it is fundamentally limited: it is mostly single-event, cannot express event ordering or causality, has no native temporal abstractions or entity-centric modeling, and cannot natively express thresholds, rates, cardinality, or statistical baselines. Wrapping these limitations in AI or “natural language” does not change the underlying detection physics. You can improve workflow and authoring experience, but you do not fundamentally invent a new class of detection with the same primitives. And guess what, large vendors have pretty significant content teams – I mean detection engineering teams – often tied into their threat research labs. Don’t tell me that a startup has found a more cost effective and higher efficacy way to release detection rules. If that were the case, all these large vendors would be dumb to operate such large teams.
4. “SIEMs lack context, causing false positives”
The argument here is that existing SIEMs flood analysts with alert noise because they lack deep asset context, threat intelligence, or behavioral understanding. New entrants promise tightly integrated TI feeds, cloud context, or built-in behavior analytics.
Context integration has been a focus of incumbent platforms for years. The real hard problem is not accessing context but operationalizing it without drowning analysts. More feeds often mean more noise unless you have mature enrichment pipelines, entity resolution, and risk scoring built into rules that understand multi-stage attack sequences. Adding more sources does not automatically improve signal quality. The noise problem is as much about rule quality and use-case focus as it is about context availability. Apply the same argument here with regards to the quality of threat feeds that I outlined in the last item.
5. “AI-native SIEMs will finally fix detection and response”
Perhaps the most seductive claim is that incumbent SIEMs were built for a pre-AI world and that new platforms built with agentic AI at every layer will finally crack automation, detection, and investigation.
The challenge is that AI does not eliminate the need for structured, high-quality, normalized data, or explainability, or deterministic behavior in high-risk contexts. AI can accelerate workflows, assist with investigation, and suggest hypotheses, but it does not replace the need for precise, reproducible, and auditable detection logic. Most AI-native claims today are improvements in UX and speed, not architectural breakthroughs in detection theory.
The Uncomfortable Conclusion
VC money is flowing because SIEM is operationally hard, expensive, and often unpopular with SOC teams. There is real pain and real gaps, especially around cost transparency, scaling, and usability. But declaring existing SIEMs obsolete because they are imperfect is not a thesis; it is a marketing slogan.
The core assumptions driving this funding wave deserve scrutiny: centralization is treated as a flaw rather than a tradeoff necessary for continuous detection, pricing complaints get conflated with architectural insights, detection quality is blamed on tooling rather than operational realities, and AI is overstated as a panacea.
On the flip side, here are a couple of directions that should be looked at:
Some of the new entrant SIEMs actually make a dent. They are rebuilding their entire pipelines and storage architecture with modern technologies, not old paradigms. They have a clear advantage and don’t have to deal with millions of lines of tech debt. Using an agentic AI architecture could be quite interesting here.
As the AI SOC emerges – and maybe become a reality – we will probably see more and more MCP servers exposing infrastructure information that can be leveraged, from alerts to context to response capabilities. But we’ll need to see how data schemas and all that will evolve.
The one innovation that has already generated some returns for investors is the entire data pipeline world. Companies like Observo (I had the privilege to be an advisor) have truly added something useful to the SIEMs and as I argue in one of my previous blogs, needs to really become a capability baked into each SIEM out there.
Everyone is suddenly looking at MSP and MSSP rollups. Investors, strategics, even VCs. The logic is obvious. Fragmented market, recurring revenue, sticky customer relationships. But the reality is that only a small subset of providers actually operate at a level worth scaling. The difference between an average MSSP and a good one comes down to a few fundamentals.
Start With Focus
Most MSPs never defined who they serve. They grew organically, took whatever customer showed up, and built a toolkit around individual fires rather than a repeatable model. A strong MSSP starts with clarity. Who is the ICP. What problem is being solved. What the operating model looks like for that segment. When this is missing, everything becomes random. Different tools. Different service quality. No leverage.
In practice, the most important segmentation is not the MSP itself, but who the MSP sells to. An MSP serving restaurants or spas has a fundamentally different security maturity, willingness to pay, and regulatory exposure than one serving regional banks, healthcare, or regulated SMBs. Treating them as one market leads to mispriced risk and churn.
Understand the Economics
Many MSPs think software licensing is their main cost. It is not. Labor dominates the model. At ConnectWise, our Service Leadership dataset showed that roughly 20 percent of MSPs were not profitable because they simply did not understand their own cost structure. The best ones hit around 20 to 25 percent EBITDA. They standardize. They price correctly. They run the business with discipline instead of firefighting.
The real margin killer is not the license costs. It is the technician minutes required to install, manage, respond, document, and bill every tool. Every additional product increases operational drag, even if the license is cheap.
Standardized Security Bundles Win
The MSSPs that scale do not let customers choose their own adventure. They define a required stack. If you want to be a customer, you adopt their bundle. This gives consistency, predictability, and actual security outcomes. A typical bundle includes:
• Patch and vulnerability management • Endpoint protection • Email security • Security awareness • Optional SIEM or MDR depending on the segment
Without standardization, you cannot maintain margins or guarantee service quality. You also make incident response dramatically harder because every environment looks different.
In reality, the bundle is usually sold at a fixed price like $50 to $100 per user per month. Any new security tool must fit inside that number. If it costs $2 to $3 per user, something else must be removed or margin gets cut. This is why getting into the bundle is harder than most vendors expect.
Service Quality Is the Product
SMBs want to be secure. They want minimal disruption. And when something goes wrong, they want a real human who knows what they are doing. Not tier 1 scripts. Not delays during an active incident. Good MSSPs prepare the customer during onboarding. They map critical systems, define escalation paths, understand what can be taken offline, and capture credentials and architecture details. They remove the guesswork from the moment the incident starts.
Billing Needs To Be Simple
One of the fastest ways to lose customers is confusing invoices. Customers want to understand what they pay for. Surprises create distrust. The MSSPs that retain well keep billing predictable, transparent, and boring.
Own the Response, Not Just the Alert
An MDR or MSSP that only notifies customers creates frustration. The provider must take the customer through remediation. For SMBs, response often means restoring operations, identifying the entry point, and closing the gap. If the MSSP cannot do this internally, it must have reliable partners.
How Rollups Actually Create Value
Rollups only work when there is a clear thesis. Some focus on platform unification and a single delivery model. Others focus on professionalizing the business with better hiring, benefits, pricing, and operational rigor. Both paths can work. But they require patience and real operating muscle.
The fastest way to build a defensible platform is often not direct MS(S)P sales but embedding into existing security vendors that already sit in the bundle. Winning a technology alliance with an EDR, MDR, or firewall provider puts you into hundreds of MSPs without forcing each of them to make a new buying decision
Cross border rollups in Europe introduce more complexity. Language and local relationships matter. Regulation varies. Centralizing delivery is possible, but customer interaction often stays local. A standardized platform can still work if the ICP is consistent across regions.
The Microsoft Factor
Many SMBs already own security features through M365. Ignoring this leads to bloated stacks and poor pricing. Smart MSSPs align their offering with what customers already have and fill the real gaps.
The Bottom Line
Building a strong MSSP is not mysterious. It requires a defined ICP, a standardized security bundle, disciplined delivery, true incident readiness, transparent billing, and the ability to take customers all the way to resolution. The providers that do these things consistently are the ones worth scaling. Investors often chase the rollup story, but the real value sits inside the boring operational fundamentals that most of the market never gets right.
Every few years in security, a category shows up that makes you think: “This market should have never existed.”
The “security data pipeline / data fabric / routing” universe is exactly that. Impressive companies in the space, smart founders, great execution and (thank you Observo!) great exists already. But the fact that there is a market here is the real indictment. This category is nothing more than a gap SIEM vendors left wide open. And the pipelines walked right in.
A Market That Shouldn’t Exist
Let’s be honest: Splunk, Elastic, Sentinel, Exabeam… they all ignored the ingest problem for too long. Cost, routing, shaping, tiering — none of it was solved cleanly. So Cribl et al solved it for them. But here’s the twist. By solving it, they also became the neutral abstraction layer. The thing sitting between customers and their SIEM. That layer is now the switching fabric. It isn’t just “optimize your Splunk bill.” It’s:
Reduce SIEM ingestion.
Store everything in our “cheap” data lake.
Oh, and here’s some lightweight analytics while you’re here.
Or how about you go ahead and try out another SIEM? We can easily forward your data to multiple places while you evaluate moving away and then switching in a matter of hours.
That’s the Trojan Horse. You invite it in to help. And suddenly it controls the keys to the castle.
History Is Repeating Itself
We’ve seen this play before:
UEBA -> first standalone products slowly morphed into adding data stores, analytics, and then became full SIEMs
SOAR -> got absorbed into SIEM
Ingest pipelines -> now becoming lakes -> and eventually a SIEM
Cribl already has Cribl Lake. Give it time and it becomes a SIEM-lite. Then a SIEM.
This is the cycle: Start as an add-on -> become indispensable -> become the platform.
We keep acting surprised. But it’s the same movie every time. And again, keep thinking about the switching costs. This layer enables every customer to easily evaluate new solutions and switch over fairly easily.
If You’re Splunk… I mean Cisco…
You’re one of the few players that can still turn this around — if you execute sharply and fast.
Here’s what Splunk must own again:
Reclaim the ingest pipeline.
Make cost the advantage, not the penalty.
Federate search across data lakes natively. (I think you are almost there)
Make tiering and reduction a first-class feature.
Kill the routing layer through pure convenience.
Figure out your real-time story. Crowdstrike is going strong on messaging how fast attackers act these days and a batch approach won’t work anymore.
If Splunk doesn’t own the control plane, Cribl will. And once you lose the control plane, you lose the customer. No matter how good your detection content is. Cisco gives Splunk a rare opportunity: distribution, integration leverage, and a chance to fix what was ignored for too long. But they can’t let another category grow unchecked. Not again.
My Take
Data pipeline products aren’t the problem. They are the symptom.
The problem is the complacency that let the ingest layer drift outside the SIEM in the first place. Because once a neutral fabric handles all your data, the SIEM becomes swappable. The next SIEM won’t start as a SIEM. It will start exactly where Cribl started; as a pipeline (Abstract Security, anyone)? That’s the Trojan Horse.
Over the past weeks, I’ve had a series of conversations across the cybersecurity ecosystem. Founders in early-stage security startups, VC firms exploring new segments, PE groups accelerating roll-ups, MSP leaders navigating change, and friends pushing the boundaries of what AI can do.
Individually, each conversation was fascinating. Taken together, they paint a picture of where the industry is heading — and where the real opportunities are emerging.
1. Network Security Isn’t Dead at All
One of the more surprising conversations was with a founder building something genuinely innovative in network security. For years, many assumed the category had settled — but the reality is that architectures, workloads, and adversaries continue to evolve. Even the DDoS and WAF spaces are not dead. To my surprise when I worked with one of the PEs to look at the space in more detail again.
The lesson: even “mature” markets have seams where real innovation can take hold.
2. The MSP Landscape Is Vast — and Misunderstood
I spoke with a VC firm considering deeper investments in the MSP ecosystem. There’s real opportunity, but also complexity that outsiders often underestimate:
Segmentation
Pricing mechanics
Packaged offerings
Integrations into broader ecosystems
and perhaps most importantly, helping MSPs actually sell security
Products don’t win in MSP without empathy for how MSPs operate and make money.
3. PE Roll-Ups Are Accelerating
One PE firm I talked to is running hard at the roll-up opportunity as the first generation of MSP founders, many starting in the late 90s, look to exit. Their playbook is all around optimized processes and joint buying power. While a European firm I am in touch with, is exploring consolidation not just for scale, but under a unified security platform strategy.
Two very different visions, both valid.
4. Connecting Leaders Amplifies Outcomes
A conversation with a European PE group was refreshing — they emphasize connecting portfolio company leaders so they can cross-pollinate learnings.
Having spent the past 18 months deep in my own leadership work (attending school for the past 18 months is a conversation for another day), I’ve become even more convinced that people dynamics are the highest leverage variable in cybersecurity execution. And it’s not just on the level of leadership that is being discussed widely. It’s about the differences in people and their unique styles. Again, a conversation for another day.
5. Building for MSPs Requires Being in Their Shoes
An MSP leader reminded me of a simple truth:
If you don’t understand the day-to-day realities of MSP life, you can’t build for them.
This applies to product, packaging, GTM, support, and everything in between.
6. AI: Beyond the Hype, Toward Real Value
I caught up with a friend who recently joined an AI company, and we talked about emerging approaches that leverage data inside the model and how one can connect their existing data stores to the various models. Love what they are building and I would have thought they were one of the hockey-stick companies, but it turns out, execution in a startup is hard and requires a lot of elbow greese.
The Unifying Thread
Across all these conversations, I keep coming back to one conclusion:
Security is fragmenting and converging at the same time: The biggest opportunities — for vendors, investors, and operators — are in the seams.
Ecosystems matter. Empathy matters. And clarity of execution matters more than ever.
It’s an exciting moment to be building in this industry.
At the Summa Equity Annual Investor Meeting in Oslo, I had the privilege of joining Jacob Frandsen on stage for a conversation about the state of cybersecurity and the broader forces shaping technology companies today. The dialogue revolved around four big questions. Each one central to how investors, founders, and operators should be thinking about the future:
1. Balancing Investing in Innovation vs. Delivering Profitability
“It’s not innovation or profitability. It’s knowing when and how to balance the two engines that drive growth.”
Innovation as survival – At smaller scale, innovation is paramount and innovation creates the moat that ensures relevance. Without it, companies risk being commoditized.
Profitability as discipline – Operational excellence, sales efficiency, and cost control are non-negotiable as you scale.
Two-engine model – Run one engine for profitability, another to push the edge of innovation.
AI disruption – Both of areas of profitability and innovation are nicely coming together with AI: AI applied in any are of a company are driving profitability, time to market, etc. On the other hand, entire cyber products are being rewritten with AI at the core. Missing the AI wave on either side kills your future relevance.
2. AI and Cyber: Opportunity and Risk
“AI is both a multiplier of capability and a source of new risks. Success comes from knowing when and how to use it.”
Force multiplier – AI accelerates development, marketing, sales, detection engineering, and lowers barriers for non-experts.
AI-led attacks – Still emerging, but attackers will adopt quickly — as defenders we must keep pace.
Security for AI – A number of new challenges we are facing. This will likely grow into its own market, but the fundamentals (data protection, trust, governance) remain the same.
3. Defensible Positions for Emerging Cyber Companies
Especially in the light of large security platforms like Crowdstrike or Microsoft or SentinelOne, how can smaller companies and startups be relevant at all?
“In cybersecurity, defensibility isn’t just about tech.”
Wedge strategy – Start narrow, with an overlooked market or product gap. For example, the MSP / SMB segment is still significantly underserved but presents a vast opportunity.
Data gravity – Unique datasets become the backbone of long-term defensibility, especially with AI to mine the data and make it actionable.
Ecosystem first – Build API-driven integrations that make you indispensable within workflows, rather than standing alone. Modern security organizations that are using one of the large platforms are still using about 20 other products to fill gaps. If those products are integrated into the larger platform it greatly reduces the complexity and ease for the operators. For the security vendors it opens up the opportunity for technology partnerships on the flip side.
4. Europe vs. US: Different Playbooks
“US is about speed and boldness; Europe is about trust and staying power — the opportunity for EU business is bridging both playbooks.”
Speed vs. trust – US rewards rapid scaling and bold claims; Europe emphasizes trust, compliance, references, and credibility. European customers are rarely early movers on new technologies.
Market fragmentation – Europe is highly localized; VARs and telcos dominate, with significant regional differences in regulation and go-to-market.
Talent edge – Europe offers strong technical talent from world-class universities. ETH anyone? 🙂
Opportunity – EU players can win by leaning into local strength; US entrants will struggle to replicate that quickly in all the markets. Adapting a product to local markets with different languages, different tax codes, cultures, labor laws, data privacy laws, etc. is a lot of work. That is why you see most US companies expand into UKI first and then slowly entering some of the countries in mainland Europe.
Closing Thoughts
The conversation reinforced for me that cybersecurity doesn’t exist in a vacuum. It intersects with innovation cycles, global talent pools, regulatory environments, and the transformative force of AI. Companies that thrive will be those that balance innovation with discipline, embrace ecosystems, and play the long game across diverse markets.
I left the stage energized. Not just by the challenges, but by the opportunities for European companies to seize if we approach them with clarity and conviction.
I had the pleasure to attend the Summa Equity Annual Investor meeting today in Oslo. It was inspiring to hear about companies in the Summa portfolio that are making a real difference. Taking a step back from day-to-day cybersecurity and business conversations, it’s refreshing to dive into themes that truly matter for humanity. At the Annual Investor Meeting in Oslo, Summa’s four investment areas came into sharp focus and they highlight both the scale of the challenges and the opportunities ahead.
Four Themes Shaping the Future
Here are the four themes that Summa invests in and some interesting facts that I gathered during the presentations:
Circularity
Desalination as a pathway to more clean water
How little of our waste is recycled, despite mounting pressure on resources
The ongoing pollution of water, air, and soil and the need to stop it at the source
Sustainable Food
The world will need ~55% more calories in the near future
Aquaculture (fish farming) is essential if we want to feed the planet sustainably – there is not enough grass to feed the cows that we’d need to feed the world
26% of global greenhouse gas emissions come from the food system
Energy Transition
Electricity demand is projected to double by 2050
Outdated grids will struggle to keep up with demand, especially from data centers
In Europe, electricity price volatility has surged 150% in just four years
Tech-Enabled Resilience
Cybercrime now costs the global economy more than $10 trillion annually
Resilience is not optional — from cybersecurity to supply chains, it underpins progress in every other theme
Why It Matters
These themes may sound broad, but they tie directly to the choices we make today. Food, water, energy, and digital resilience are the foundation of a thriving future. Hearing how Summa is approaching them — and backing real companies solving real problems — is both sobering and energizing.
As someone deeply engaged in cybersecurity, it’s eye-opening to connect that work to the bigger picture: resilience, sustainability, and how we ensure humanity thrives well into the future.
Thanks to Summa Equity for hosting such a thought-provoking gathering and for having me speak about cyber security.
